Oliver Wyman and Efama release credit predictions

Volumes in retail credit markets in Europe will grow at 1.4% over the next five years, less than the annual growth in nominal GDP of around 2%, consultancy Oliver Wyman and


the European Fund and Asset Management Association (Efama) forecast.

In a joint report, European retail credit survey: Exploring the map, they say the general slowing of retail credit growth hides significant discrepancies across Europe. And, overall, growth will slow even in growing markets.

Poland, Turkey, Russia, Norway and Sweden are seen as “growing” markets, a category defined by economic growth and non-performing loans.

Whereas Austria, the UK, Denmark, Finland, Germany and Switzerland are seen as “stagnant” markets.

On the “watch credit” list of countries that have suffered most during the financial crisis are Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Belgium, France and the Netherlands.

“Institutions in those markets need to prepare for a tougher environment,” Matthew Sebag-Montefiore, partner, Oliver Wyman. “To avoid making the same mistakes as the watch-list countries, these institutions should invest in retail credit analytics covering underwriting, portfolio management and collections.”

Patrick Desmarès, secretary general of Efma, says although the outlook remains “relatively bleak”, banks should better position themselves to deal with upcoming market developments.

©2013 funds europe

HAVE YOU READ?

THOUGHT LEADERSHIP

Innovative US companies are providing some of the solutions to the climate crisis and transition to a more sustainable economy. We see potential opportunities in areas including renewable energy and…
FIND OUT MORE
This white paper outlines key challenges impeding the growth of private markets and explores how technological innovation can provide solutions to unlock access to private market funds for a growing…
DOWNLOAD NOW

IRELAND SPOTLIGHT

Visit our dedicated Ireland channel for all the latest news and analysis on the country's investment industry.
READ MORE

PRIVATE MARKETS FUND ADMIN REPORT

Private_Markets_Fund_Admin_Report

LATEST PODCAST