When China hits the brakes, expect a soft landing

China bicyclesChina's central bank must take action to cool its overheating economy and control inflation, according to Yves Kuhn, portfolio manager for emerging markets at Swisscanto. But the bank will do its best to avoid a so-called “hard landing”, in which a slowdown in growth to 6% or lower causes widespread job losses. Instead, Kuhn anticipates a “soft landing” where growth drops to about 8%. This is less than the 9.7% growth figure recorded in the first quarter, but “would still be strong enough to avoid major layoffs and to limit political upheavals”. This moderate slowdown ought to be enough to kill uncontrolled inflation, according to Kuhn. However, it could hurt exporters in developed countries and cyclical plays linked to China. Economies that depend on exporting commodities would also suffer as China's high growth has kept commodity prices high in recent years. Kuhn also predicts a limited sell-off of risky assets. ©2011 funds europe

Executive Interviews

INTERVIEW: Put your money where your mouth is

Jun 10, 2016

At Kempen Capital Management, they believe portfolio managers should invest in their own funds. David Stevenson talks to Lars Dijkstra, CIO of the €42 billion manager.

EXECUTIVE INTERVIEW: ‘Volatility is the name of the game’

May 13, 2016

Axa Investment Managers chief executive officer, Andrea Rossi, talks to David Stevenson about bringing all his firm’s subsidiaries under one name and the opportunities that a difficult market...


ROUNDTABLE: Beyond the hype

Oct 13, 2016

The use of smart beta investing continues to grow. Our panel, made up of both providers and users, discusses what the strategy actually means, how it should be used and the kind of pitfalls that may arise when using this innovative investment technique.

MIFID II ROUNDTABLE: Following the direction of travel

Sep 07, 2016

Fund management firms Aberdeen and HSBC Global meet with specialist providers to speak about how the industry is evolving towards MiFID II.