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UBS wealth managers predict 2018 World Cup winner

Russia_world_cup_ZabivakaFull marks to UBS Global Wealth Management (UBS GWM) for putting its digitally driven prediction powers to a public test.

The firm has used its “econometric” tools, which are normally used to assess investment opportunities, to predict the likely outcome of this year’s World Cup in Russia.

And the result? No country has higher odds of winning the tournament than Germany, the wealth management business says.

Fuller details are in a UBS GWM report called ‘Investing and football’, but the firm’s simulations – which were run by its chief investment office team - suggest Germany leads the table with a 24% likelihood of a win.

The simulations also suggest Brazil and Spain stand a good chance of lifting the trophy (see table).

Host nation Russia will start in the Cup’s weakest group and is expected to progress to the 16th round, where it is likely to lose against Spain or Portugal, UBS wealth management says.

Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS GWM, said: "No matter whether they are analysing global markets or soccer tournaments, people tend to be biased towards local favorites.

The same quantitative discipline that the chief investment office applies to investments has proven useful in successfully looking beyond a home bias in portfolios and sports events."

The report includes a section on how to invest in Russia, the World Cup’s host nation, and an analysis of the impact the tournament might have on its economy.

The World Cup kicks off in June. All eyes will be on Russia, Germany, and UBS Global Wealth Management.

Top ten teams and % chance of winning

Germany 24
Brazil 19.8
Spain 16.1
England 8.5
France 7.3
Belgium 5.3
Argentina 4.9
Portugal 3.1
Uruguay 1.8
Switzerland 1.8

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