Gold can outperform even in a deflationary scenario, claims WGC

gold-bars1The World Gold Council (WGC) claims that investing in gold could benefit portfolios in a deflationary environment. Often seen as a hedge against inflation, the WGC makes the claim that gold can benefit portfolios in a broader range of economic environments. Based on research commissioned from Oxford Economics, the WGC says that gold’s share of an optimal portfolio - which includes commercial property, equities and cash - is around 5% in a base long-term economic scenario featuring 2.25% growth and 2% annual inflation. The optimal allocation rises in a more inflationary long-run scenario and also does so for more risk-averse investors in a scenario featuring weaker growth and low inflation. The portfolio is constructed from the perspective of a UK investor in order to utilise a long run of historical asset returns data going back to 1971. With inflationary and deflationary pressures posing problems the world over, the report - called 'The impact of inflation and deflation on the case for gold’ - aimed to improve understanding of why gold is used as a risk management asset. In addition, it suggests that average gold allocations are sub-optimal and that many investors could benefit from increased exposure to the precious metal. The report also found that gold plays an important role in stabilising the value of a portfolio even if a modest negative real annual return is assumed. ©2011 funds global

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