Fund professionals expect more EU fragmentation

Funds Europe Global Risks Survey

Further fragmentation of the EU was expected by nearly 70% of respondents who took part in Funds Europe’s Global Risks ‘On The Spot’ Survey, which was carried out at FundForum International.

This amounted to 35 conference-goers out of 51 who completed the survey last week. They were also asked to predict the next American president, the level of growth in China and the direction of interest rates, among other events related to unfolding geo-political risks.

Sixty-nine per cent of respondents expected further EU fragmentation, while 31% said they did not expect any more disintegration. 

The fairly high level of fragmentation risk perceived by conference-goers contrasted with their feelings about the likelihood of the UK leaving the EU. Only a few expected this to take place. 

Just 8% predicted the UK to leave, while 92% said the UK would remain. This equates to 47 out of 51 saying the UK would not leave the EU.

Other findings of the survey included:

The next president of the US
US rates by the end of the year

The majority of respondents (59%) expected China’s growth to be 5% this year. A narrow margin existed between predictions for China growth of 3% and 7%, with 17% and 16% of FundForum attendees, respectively, polling these figures.

Overall, the results may suggest FundForumers felt safe and secure as they drifted off to sleep in their hotels last week. The conference took place in Berlin over three days.

However, participants cited a number of additional risks.

Russia’s reaction to a Trump victory was one; the next chapter of the refugee crisis another. Wealth inequality, unemployment, the Middle East, liquidity, economic growth and cybersecurity were other risks (see charts).

©2016 funds europe